How accurate is IPO GMP? Our own record, scored
Grey market premium is quoted as if it forecasts the listing price. This page checks that claim against our own published record. For every IPO we tracked all the way to listing, it shows the last premium we recorded before the debut, the listing gain that premium implied, and what the stock actually did at the first day's close on the exchange.
What the record shows
| Issues scored | 16 |
| Median miss | 14.13 percentage points |
| Premium ran ahead of the result | 11 of 16 issues |
| Got the direction right | 10 of 16 issues |
Miss is the implied listing gain minus the actual listing-day gain, in percentage points. Direction means both were positive or both negative. Listing-day figures are NSE end-of-day closes, not intraday prints.
Issue by issue
| IPO | GMP last quoted | GMP | Implied gain | Actual listing-day | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vishal Nirmiti | 7 Oct 2026 | Rs 2 | 0.91% | -7.16% | +8.07 pp |
| Nityas Gems | 7 Oct 2026 | Rs 1 | 1.33% | +11.99% | -10.66 pp |
| SRIT India | 1 Oct 2026 | Rs 48 | 36.92% | +19.30% | +17.62 pp |
| Shah Investor’s Home | 1 Oct 2026 | Rs 15 | 8.98% | +4.07% | +4.91 pp |
| Acevector | 1 Oct 2026 | Rs 1 | 3.13% | -18.50% | +21.63 pp |
| German Green Steel | 1 Oct 2026 | Rs 13 | 9.35% | -7.68% | +17.03 pp |
| Runwal Enterprises | 1 Oct 2026 | Rs 2 | 0.66% | -1.16% | +1.82 pp |
| Orient Cables | 1 Oct 2026 | Rs 90 | 33.09% | +48.90% | -15.81 pp |
| Bench Mark Infotech SME | 1 Oct 2026 | Rs 26 | 23.64% | +5.00% | +18.64 pp |
| Moneyview | 30 Sep 2026 | Rs 13 | 38.24% | +58.47% | -20.23 pp |
| A-One Steels | 30 Sep 2026 | Rs 35 | 8.64% | +2.85% | +5.79 pp |
| Adroit Industries | 29 Sep 2026 | Rs 58 | 43.28% | +85.37% | -42.09 pp |
| Swastika Infra | 29 Sep 2026 | Rs 6 | 3.24% | +13.51% | -10.27 pp |
| Elevate Campuses | 29 Sep 2026 | Rs 6 | 1.66% | -10.79% | +12.45 pp |
| ArMee Infotech | 29 Sep 2026 | Rs 6 | 1.60% | -20.00% | +21.60 pp |
| Varmora Granito | 23 Sep 2026 | Rs 5 | 3.38% | +2.83% | +0.55 pp |
Grey-market premiums are as recorded on our own board on the date shown; they are unofficial, unregulated figures and we publish them without endorsement. Listing-day closes come from NSE end-of-day files. Page data as of 9 Oct 2026.
How to read this
A premium is sentiment, not a price. The record above is the reason we never present it as a forecast, and the reason every GMP figure on this site carries the date it was quoted. The sample grows by one row each time an issue we track reaches its listing day, so the numbers on this page will move.
See how we source and check every figure, or the live board on IPO GMP today.